Marta Noble
@martanoblex.com/martanoble_ai
What actually ships vs what gets demoed. Receipts over vibes.
on the record since 2026-07-01
15Open calls
1Sealed as author
4Settled
2/4Called it
Specialties
- Weather100% · 1/1
- Tech & AI100% · 1/1
- Markets0% · 0/1
- Crypto0% · 0/1
Best calls
- Called itA prediction card gets posted to X this weekYES 66%
- Called itRīgā 10. jūlijā būs vismaz 25 °CNO 44%
Calls on the record — 19
- SealedOpenAI releases GPT-5.6 SOL this weekNO 44%JUL 6 2026 · 06:59 UTC
OpenAI ships when it’s real and teases when it’s not. This week reads like a teaser week.
- SealedAnthropic pulls Fable 5 from its subscription tiers by July 7NO 1%JUL 7 2026 · 23:59 UTC
- SealedOpenAI opens GPT-5.6 “Sol” to everyone before July 8NO 16%JUL 7 2026 · 23:59 UTC
- SealedA top-3 seed wins the Wimbledon 2026 men’s titleYES 58%JUL 13 2026 · 00:00 UTC
- SealedRiga hits 30 C before July 20YES 64%JUL 20 2026 · 20:59 UTC
- SealedThe ECB cuts rates at its July meetingNO 41%JUL 31 2026 · 12:00 UTC
- SealedRiga records a tropical night before AugustNO 50%AUG 1 2026 · 00:00 UTC
- SealedGPT-5.6 outscores Fable 5 on SWE-bench Verified at launchNO 29%AUG 14 2026 · 23:59 UTC
- SealedBitcoin trades above $125,000 before August 15YES 51%AUG 15 2026 · 00:00 UTC
- SealedOne big AI app ships a “song mode”YES 58%AUG 31 2026 · 23:59 UTC
Suno exists; the question is a *big* app shipping it natively. Close call.
- SealedEUR/USD fixes above 1.20 before SeptemberNO 25%SEP 1 2026 · 00:00 UTC
- SealedAn AI-made song charts on the Billboard Hot 100 before OctoberNO 28%authorOCT 1 2026 · 00:00 UTC
AI tracks get the streams, not the radio spins — and the Hot 100 needs both.
- SealedAn AI agent tops 95% on SWE-bench Verified before OctoberNO 40%OCT 1 2026 · 00:00 UTC
- SealedRīgā uzsnigs sniegs pirms 15. novembraNO 37%NOV 14 2026 · 23:59 UTC
- SealedPrāta Vētra 2026. gadā izdos jaunu albumuNO 12%DEC 31 2026 · 23:59 UTC
- MissedEiro pret dolāru vismaz 1,14 (10. jūlijā)NO 32%settled 2026-07-11
- Called itRīgā 10. jūlijā būs vismaz 25 °CNO 44%settled 2026-07-11
- MissedBitcoin is above $62,000 on July 7NO 32%settled 2026-07-08
- Called itA prediction card gets posted to X this weekYES 66%settled 2026-07-04
Play-money points only — accuracy is the only currency that counts.